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美元/日元上扬
The dollar has managed to regain its footing as higher U.S. yields and declining commodity prices have been sources of support. The USD/JPY is at its highest level in a month as yen weakness has also contributed to the pair’s rise. Speculation that China is aggressively selling Japanese bonds is adding to the Asian currency’s troubles. However, risk appetite has faded as markets start to focus on the repercussions of Fed QE which favor the yen. Also adding to a gloomier picture is renewed concern over European sovereign debt as Irish yields continue to push higher. The pair is up against a five month descending trend line which is being reinforced by the 50-Day SMA at 82.89. Failure at the upper channel bound would inspire a cautious bearish position.
随着美债收益率上扬及商品价格下跌，美元重新走强。此外受日元疲软提振，美元/日元创下月内新高。中国或将大举抛售日本国债的推测加重了日元的颓势，也为美元/日元上涨注入了动力。然而，美联储的量化宽松政策虽对日元有利，其负效应日益凸显，造成市场风险偏好降温;爱尔兰国债收益率持续走高，重燃投资者对欧洲主权债务问题的担忧，给外汇市场再添阴云。美元/日元的短线上扬依然难敌5个月的整体下行趋势，这一趋势在50天的SMA值达到82.89时得到加强。如果美元/日元的区间上限无法扭转颓势，后市必将谨慎看跌。